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https://tribwxin.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/harvey-rainfall1.png?w=770&h=433


TROPICAL STORM HARVEY: ABOUT THAT "1000 YEAR FLOOD"

 

By Mike King

 

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http://media.culturemap.com/crop/13/18/960x720/Houston-Hurricane-Harvey-flood-photos-Buffalo-Bayou-Park-from-Gillette-St_184933.JPG

Washington Post: Harvey is a 1,000-year Flood Event Unprecedented in Scale

NY Times: A 500 Year Flood

REBUTTAL BY

A Google Search of the term "Harvey 1000 year flood" yields 1,600,000 results. How anyone can claim a "1000 year" anything when the recorded history of the Houston area only goes back about 200 years is as baffling as it is amusing. But even if that 1,000 year number is an exaggeration (some say "500 year storm") surely, no one disputes that Tropical Storm Harvey set a record for the highest rainfall total in US History (continental US, that is) -- coming in at just under 52 inches. Of that, there is no doubt. Right? --- Not exactly.

Something just didn't smell right to Sugar the Crazed Conspiracy Cat about all this "unprecedented" talk about Harvey's rainfall totals and the associated in-your-face suggestions by the Affirmative Action Fake Scientist Neil DeGreaseball Tyson and the talking heads of the Fake News that the storm is evidence of manmade, CO2-based "Global Warming" TM / "Climate Change TM." So we did a little poking around cyberspace and made some interesting discoveries. None of this mitigates the scope of the disaster and human suffering in the Houston Metro area, of course, but we want to set the record straight about this "1000 year storm" because the Piranha Press is up to something here.

 

About that "1000 years"

The 50-inch mark was surpassed only in one town, Cedar Bayou at 51.88. To the east, Beaumont-Port Arthur recorded 47.3. To the west, La Porte: 36.2, Houston: 43.3, Katy: 31.2 (totals here). Averaging out the five hardest hit regions yields a number of 41.97 inches. Now that's still a hell-of-a-lot of rain, but, it is almost 20% less than the high point average that is exclusively quoted by the Piranha Press. It also brings Harvey down a few notches to the point where it is comparable to Tropical Storm Amelia of 1978 (here) and Tropical Storm Claudette of 1979 (here) -- both of which drenched the Houston / Southeast area with average volume totals well over 40-inches, and highs in the upper 40's.

 

https://tribwxin.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/harvey-rainfall1.png?w=770&h=433

 

When we average out Cedar Bayou with the neighboring area, Harvey drops into the low 40's --- more like a 30-40 year rainstorm, not "1000." -- (and it may very well have been geo-engineered to boot!)
 
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https://i.ytimg.com/vi/jHPgSDJ984M/maxresdefault.jpg http://media.nbcdfw.com/images/1200*675/Harvey_to_Overtake_Amelia_as_TS_With_Most_Rainfall.jpg?ak=bc https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/Tropical_Storm_Claudette_%281979%29_flooding.JPG 

1. Make-Believe "scientist" Neil DeGasBag Tyson slammed "climate deniers" after Harvey's supposedly "unprecedented" rainfall totals. 2 & 3: Amelia and Claudette dumped just as much total rain (perhaps even more!) in back-to-back years during the 1970's.

 

So you see, not only was Harvey NOT the "1000 year event" that the warmists keep insisting it was -- but we need only go back 38 years for a similar rainfall total, and then just 1 more year prior to that for yet another! The difference between those two monster storms and Harvey was that the Houston Metro area had only about half the population and half the development than it does today. Hence, the death and destruction associated with Harvey will end up being far more severe (although it appears that the government-media complex may be covering up the true death toll, but that's another story).

But the Fake Statistics may even run deeper.

 

About that "52 inches"

The Washington Compost cites John Nielsen-Gammon, the "Texas state climatologist" as the sole source for the 50.90-inch mark (here) and qualifies his claim thusly:


"All rainfalls totals from this storm are still preliminary and require review. But, if verified, this amount breaks not only the Texas state rainfall record but also the record for the remaining Lower 48 states." (emphasis added)

So, the reports about the breaking of the 50-inch barrier, in that one area, are "preliminary" and "require review." Interesting. Even more interesting is the shady background of this "state climatologist." Sugar and I, er, "The Editorial Board" of The Anti-New York Times has learned and confirmed that John Nielsen-Gammon is a Professor at Texas A & M and a hard-core Global Warmist with a history of manipulating data in order to "prove" that Global Warming TM is real.

 

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/2a/e6/78/2ae678d73117a7d6d968e034fdf4c34a.jpg http://climatechangenationalforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Climate-Sensitivty-Dr-Nielsen-Gammon-UHLC-Presentation.png https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/v/record_breaking_rain_50_inches_1280x720_16380997548.jpg?v=at&w=815&h=458&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

Texas "State Climatologist" John Nielsen-Gammon teaches CO2 warmist crap to gullible students at Texas A&M. He is the one who started the "50 + inch" mantra that millions of us are now repeating.

 

In an April 2012 article appearing in the Houston Chronicle, titled: About That Lack of Warming (here), Gammon used cooked numbers to explain away the fact that the Earth had not warmed in previous years. He begins his propaganda piece by conceding this fact:

"It’s common knowledge among those who follow such things that global temperatures have not gone up very much in the past several years.  This has caused many to believe that the recent lack of warming contradicts what climate models say should happen." 

Gammon then broke out into a classic "Fallacy of Verbosity and Complexity" line of attack in which he blamed the flat temperatures on the "La Nina" and "El Nino" phenomena.

Gammon continued:

"I decided to take a simple approach at looking at the effect of ENSO.  Using GISTemp Land/Ocean Index values and Niño 3.4 values, I computed 12-month running averages of Niño 3.4 and compared them to the average GISTemp values at lags of 0, 3, and 6 months.  Foster and Rahmsdorf used a different ENSO index and found optimal lags between 2 and 5 months.  So one would guess that a 3-month lag would fit the data best in my case, and indeed it did.

The normal threshold for El Niño or La Niña, as applied by the Climate Prediction Center, is for five consecutive months of at least 0.5 C above or below normal in a key region of the tropical Pacific.  For working with annual data, I decided to call an annual average above 0.5 C an El Niño and an annual average below -0.5 C a La Niña.  Then I plotted it up, color-coding each year for whether it was El Niño, La Niña, or neither (neutral).  Here’s the result:"

Gammon included the following chart: 

Temperatures since 1950Temperature trends since 1967

Figures lie and liars figure.


And finally, on the basis of his mathematical masturbation, Gammon concluded his hit-piece against "climate deniers" with this bit of Marxist mockery:

"So about that lack of warming:  Yes, it’s real.  You can thank La Niña. As for whether this means that (greenhouse) gases are no longer having an impact: Nice try."

This then is the government-funded "scientist" whose "unverified" claim of a "record" of "52 inches" is now being repeated by millions and millions of unsuspecting people, including, up until just yesterday, your intrepid reporters here! Again, none of this mitigates the scope of the disaster, but it certainly offers us a "teachable moment" TM about how lies are manufactured, injected and disseminated throughout an unsuspecting population. In this case, the related lies of "1000 years" and "record 50 inches" serve the purpose of selling the big lie that Harvey was caused by "Global Warming" TM / "Climate Change TM."

"Nice try," Mr. DeGoofy Tyson and Mr. Gammon. Nice try.

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http://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/wp-content/uploads/satevepost/cartoon-of-the-day-055.jpg

  Boobus Americanus 1: I read in the New York Times today that the 50 inches of rain that Harvey dropped on Houston makes it a 500 Year flood.

Boobus Americanus 2: The Washington Post is saying it was a 1000 Year flood.

 

 

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